Dividend Capture Analysis — FDM.LSE 4.00% yield today

As of 2026-04-14 · Declaration 2026-03-18 · Ex-dividend 2026-06-04 · Payment 2026-06-26
Dividend snapshot
Current inputs used for the prediction fan and payoff area.
Snapshot
Current price
£1.00
Close used in this analysis
Upcoming dividend
4.00p
Per share, for this event
Implied yield
4.00%
Dividend ÷ current price
Key dates
Decl: 2026-03-18
Ex-div: 2026-06-04
Pay: 2026-06-26
Price path and historical-based prediction
Actual prices from declaration to today, then a data-driven fan based on past ex-dividend cycles for this ticker.
Price Prediction
Actual price
Mean prediction
Prediction fan (25–75%)
Payoff area (price + dividend after ex-div)
0% vs today
Labels: Declaration · Ex-dividend · Today · Payment. Right axis shows % vs today’s price (0% is the dashed mid-line). Band: Central band reflects the 25–75% range of historical paths; line is the average. Payoff area: shaded region after ex-dividend shows total payoff from entering today: price move + dividend.
Model Explain
How the prediction fan and payoff area are constructed for FDM.LSE.
Model
  • Post-ex recoveries used: 6 ex-dividend events over 22 days after ex-dividend (where data is available).
  • Post-ex fan construction: for each day after ex-dividend, we gather all historical paths, compute the average return and the 25th–75th percentile range, then rescale this to today’s price to build the recovery fan.
  • Normalisation (post-ex): for each past event, we scale prices so that the ex-dividend price is 0% and express subsequent moves as % change from that level.
  • Pre-ex window: we only use up to the last 20 days before ex-dividend.
  • Pre-ex drift: far from ex-dividend we apply a gentle drift blended from historical pre-ex behaviour and recent average daily returns; in the final 20 days we align historical pre-ex paths and average them.
  • Historical price window: uses actual market closes up to today.
Post-ex fan uses past ex-dividend recoveries for this ticker. Not investment advice.
Recovery paths
Individual past recoveries from ex-dividend date to payment, normalised to 0% at ex-dividend.
Recoveries
Individual recoveries
Average recovery
0% baseline
Showing 6 historical ex-dividend recoveries (thin lines) and their average recovery (highlighted line). Y-axis: % change from ex-dividend price. X-axis: days since ex-dividend.